Foreign investors have pulled over Rs 6,400 crore from the Indian equity market in the first four trading sessions of the ongoing month when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and US Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Given the headwinds in terms of elevated crude prices, inflation, tight monetary policy among others, FPIs' flows in India are expected to remain volatile in the near term, Shrikant Chouhan, Head - Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities, said. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remained net sellers for seven months to April 2022, withdrawing a massive amount of over Rs 1.65 lakh crore from equities. This was largely on the back of anticipation of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and due to the deteriorating geopolitical environment following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The FMCG index gained more than 1% on the back of stellar gains in ITC.
If Chinese growth starts falling, sharply or otherwise, the risk on trade might reverse.
Global rating agency S&P on Tuesday said even though the US and the Euro zone are headed to recession, India is unlikely to face the impact given the "not so coupled" nature of its economy with the global economy. "Indian economy is a lot decoupled from the global economy than we normally think of, given its large domestic demand, even though you (India) are a net importer of energy. "But you have enough forex reserves on one hand and your companies have managed to maintain healthy balance sheets," Paul F Gruenwald, S&P global chief economist and managing director, told reporters in Mumbai.
HCL Tech was the top loser in the Sensex pack, skidding over 4 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra Dr Reddy's, Wipro, TCS, Titan and Infosys. NSE Nifty plunged 167.80 points to 17,110.15.
Rupee rises by 16 paise against dollar on fresh selling.
Yes Bank was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying 10.94 per cent. Other gainers included Sun Pharma, IndusInd Bank, L&T, ICICI Bank, Maruti, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors and ONGC, rallying up to 4.01 per cent.
'Over the next two quarters, markets will be guided by observing the earnings resilience of corporates during the second lockdown, progress of the monsoon and the damage, if any, to rural spending power due to the second wave.'
Silver followed suit and recovered Rs 400 to Rs 34,100 per kg.
Gold prices hit record high in the third week of March as fears of bank collapses and high inflation led investors to the traditional safe haven. Gold prices are often inversely correlated to dollar strength because the international price is dollar-denominated. The Federal Reserve's (Fed's) stance indicates that the dollar may appreciate further since it is prepared to keep pushing up policy rates. But demand for gold is also up - the World Gold Council claims central banks are buying in addition to private demand.
Following are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday
The broader markets traded higher with mid-caps and small-caps gaining 0.2-0.3 per cent on the BSE.
With the international markets facing uncertainty after Russia invaded Ukraine and Western nations retaliated with sanctions, Indian companies are putting their international fundraising plans on hold as they wait for the markets to recover. Bankers said apart from the geopolitical crisis, international rates are hardening in anticipation of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve to control rising prices in the US. The Ukraine situation has implications for the market. In such a situation, international investors try to shift to safe haven assets by exiting from emerging markets.
The rupee plunged 58 paise to close at an all-time low of 81.67 (provisional) against the US dollar on Monday as the strengthening of the American currency overseas and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, escalation of geopolitical risks due to conflict in Ukraine, a negative trend in domestic equities and significant foreign fund outflows sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 81.47, then fell further to close at an all-time low of 81.67 against the American currency, registering a decline of 58 paise over its previous close.
'The government is trying to kickstart the investment cycle in India and while the corporate investments are yet to gather momentum, there are early signs of the same.'
There are overvaluation and excesses in many pockets of the market. This is most obvious in the IPO market, where loss-making companies have inflicted large losses on investors, observes Debashis Basu.
Investors' wealth has tumbled by over Rs 5.82 lakh crore in three days of market decline. Feeble global cues, foreign fund outflows and concerns over policy tightening by central banks have led to the selling pressure, experts said. Declining for the third straight session on Monday, the 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex nosedived 1,023.63 points or 1.75 per cent to close at 57,621.19. In three days, the benchmark has tanked 1,937.14 points.
US stocks rose more than 1% on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 coming less than 2% below its record peak set last month.
Market breadth continued to remain strong, with 1899 gainers and 674 losers on the BSEs.
'Slower-than-anticipated recovery can be a bigger risk this time than a liquidity-driven event -- at least for India.'
'It is less dependent on imported capital.'
Stock markets in structural bull run but there can be bouts of volatility says Ravi Gopalakrishnan, head, equities, Canara Robeco Mutual Fund
Indian equity markets registered their highest single-day percentage gains since early October.
Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla on Monday warned members against referring to anyone's caste and religion in the House after a Congress MP alleged that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman made certain remarks about his proficiency in Hindi because he belonged to a lower caste.
Sustained demand for the dollar is the reason.
The value of foreign portfolio investors' (FPI) holdings in domestic equities reached $654 billion in three months ended December 2021, a drop of nearly 2 per cent from the preceding quarter, according to a Morningstar report. This was largely on the back of a massive sell-off by foreign investors and a correction in the Indian equity markets, especially in the large and mid-cap sectors. "At the end of the quarter ended December 2021, the value of FPI investments in Indian equities fell to $654 billion, which was lower than $667 billion recorded in the previous quarter, a fall of around 2 per cent," the report noted.
The indefinite economic blockade by United Naga Council since November 1, 2016 in Manipur against the state government's decision for creation of seven new districts has severely hit supply of essential commodities, including fuel.
It is the rupee's biggest single-day gain this year.
The dinner Jill Biden and her husband US President Joe Biden hosted for Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, June 22, at the White House brought together, Indians and Americans from so many firmaments.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at over 7 per cent in the current fiscal year, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Wednesday, while observing that the growth rate should sustain next year too provided the forthcoming Budget does not have any negative surprises. Panagariya further said recessionary fears have been around for a while but so far neither the US nor the EU has gone into recession. "From the viewpoint of India, in terms of headwinds originating abroad, the worst is probably behind us," he told PTI.
'As we expect the economy to continue to grow above the trend line, we expect capex decisions to be taken next year when there is more certainty about the cost of funding and the economy.'
The 30-share Sensex ended flat at 21,833 and 50-share Nifty gained 7 points at 6,524.
Index heavyweight RIL surged 3% to end above Rs 1,000 mark while IT majors were also the top gainers.
An action on the rate front is unlikely to figure in Rajan's plan for the moment.
The difference between what the banks play in the US and India is not that of soccer and football but rugby and football. SVB also has a unique character. But when risks are mispriced, the fallout could be very similar, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies reiterate his bullish view on Indian equities on the back of a steady fall in Covid cases coupled with a sharp economic recovery in India, reports Puneet Wadhwa.
The Reserve Bank may be hitting the end of its tolerance for high inflation and will most likely hike interest rates in the first half of 2022, analysts said on Friday. The central bank will also start rolling back its accommodative policies which have led to easy liquidity conditions, they said. The view from analysts came even as inflation cooled down to 5.6 per cent for July, after two months of breaching the upper end of the RBI's tolerance band of 6 per cent.
History would indicate that a recession is not that far off.
Lower crude oil prices and a rally in domestic equities restricted the losses to some extent, forex dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic currency opened weak at 79.50 per dollar.
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